The Oscars are silly and fun. That’s all I chock it up to when I think about an award ceremony where the upper 1% gets to pat each other on the back for one night. That being said, as a massive fan of prestige cinema, this is the ceremony that brings attention to cinema and promotes why it’s an art form that we need to love and embrace. Each year, me and my friends treat The Oscars like a sporting event. Why? Because it’s a lot of fun. Award Season is like sports for me. Rooting for your favorites to win big and your least favorites to go empty handed. Making bets and celebrating when you are right on an outside shot. Award season is an amazing time to be a film fan, and these are my final predictions for this years Oscars. Today I will only be covering above the line predictions or else this article would become the length of a Leo Tolstoy novel, but if you are interested in seeing all of my predictions here is a link to my account on Gold Derby — https://www.goldderby.com/my-predictions/brett_william_schutt/oscars-nominations-2025-predictions/
Now onto the predictions!
Best Picture
I have to first admit my bias when it comes to this decision, The Brutalist is my favorite movie of the year and I think it should easily win Best Picture. However, I will admit that this year, there is no clear front runner for the award. Emilia Perez is the only film that has truly gotten in everywhere it has needed to but with the massive backlash that movie has received, I find it hard for it to win the award. Usually, in order to win the coveted Best Picture award, you need a few other wins to justify a package. It is very rarely that a movie wins a lone best picture award. At this point, Emilia Perez is only looking at a win for Zoe Saldana in supporting actress (I will discuss that later on in this article). While The Brutalist could easily be in winning contention for best director with Bradey Corbet and best actor with Adrien Brody (which I will once again discuss later in this article). With the best drama win for The Brutalist, that gives it great position to win The Oscar. However, it’s major snubs for the Screen Actor Guild nominations is alarming. It is very rare that a movie that only gets one SAG nomination goes on to win Best Picture, which is why people are hesitating on saying that The Brutalist will win. There has also been reports that some academy members believe that The Brutalist is too long and aren’t finishing the film.
I don’t know how much validity we can give these reports, just last year Oppenheimer won best picture and the movie ran at over three hours. There is also a little controversy smear campaign created against The Brutalist for using AI to improve performances. If you look deeper into the context of this story, you will see that AI was only used in post to polish some vowels used in the Hungarian for better authenticity of the time period, it maybe effected two minutes of screen time in a three and a half hour epic. This could lead into another article I write later on for this site, but if that is enough for people to turn on The Brutalist, don’t watch any movies anymore. Movies for years now have been using technology and AI to polish their films in post production. I don’t think these type of narratives ever effect the voting body too much however. If this was the case, we wouldn’t see Emilia Perez doing so well at the guilds with the loads of controversy it has gained for it’s sensationalism towards the transgender community and ultimately audiences being completely turned off by the music in general.
I could also see Edward Berger’s film Conclave running for the ultimate prize. It looks very likely to win screenplay at this point and it’s timely nature, discussing an election and the reflections religion can have on said election makes it a hot button film that could gain steam within the oncoming months. Sean Baker’s latest Anora, what was perceived as this years frontrunner for picture after winning the Palm D’or at Cannes also still has a strong chance at winning gold. It’s more sexual content and vulgarity in my opinion might make it hard for it to win the top prize, and it massively underperformed in wins at this years Golden Globes. James Mangold’s excellent biopic about Bob Dylan, A Complete Unknown has been massively over performing at guilds and I believe will show up big Oscar morning. If Timothee Chalamet can challenge Adrien Brody for that Oscar win, we could see the ultimate upset with it winning best picture. I don’t believe this will happen, but, weirder narratives have gone to movies winning best picture in the past. Movies like Wicked, The Substance and Dune Part 2 are locks for nominations for this years Oscars, but I don’t see them having a path to winning the award. The last two slots this year are difficult and could go to many movies. For me, I’m saying that Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain will enter into best picture. I will say my bias here, it is one of my personal favorite movies of 2024. However, since Kieran Culkin is a lock for winning supporting actor and the movies screenplay has been doing well in getting nominations, it seems like a likely placeholder for the ninth spot. For the tenth spot, I’m saying Sing Sing will slide into it. This A24 drama was considered a frontrunner to win just months ago. However, the films poor distribution strategy by A24 has the film missing in a lot of precursor awards. It missed SAG ensemble and Golden Globes drama, something that should have been easy for this movie to get into. That being said, Colman Domingo has had a good showing in best actor nominations and the films screenplay has shown up a few places as well. This should help it secure that tenth slot. Sadly, I believe RaMel Ross’ excellent Nickel Boys will miss the cut this year. While the film has gotten massive acclaim from critics broadly, it has been missing a lot of precursor awards. I don’t think Ross at this point can make director and the films biggest accomplishment is it’s visionary direction. The film hasn’t been widely seen, failing to create much buzz outside certain circles. For now, this is my line up for best picture, ranked by how likely I believe they will be nominated and win the award.
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Anora
A Complete Unknown
Wicked
The Substance
Dune Part 2
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Best Director
Like I stated earlier, I believe Bradey Corbet will win director for The Brutalist. This movie is the biggest directorial effort of the year and it was only made for about ten million dollars. While the AI controversy might create a road bump for Corbet, I don’t think it will amount to too much. A film made by someone who’s been around in the industry since he was a kid starring in Mysterious Skin now making a film akin to The Godfather that could be interpreted as an allegory for the way creatives are treated by their producers is enough for him to be awarded big come Oscar night. However, I could also see Sean Baker winning for Anora. Sean Baker has had several critically acclaimed films that have never been recognized in the same way Anora has and I believe he might enter the club with The Academy similarly to the way Guillermo Del Toro did with The Shape of Water in 2017. I believe Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez, Coraline Farget for The Substance and Edward Berger for Conclave will be the other three nominated in this category, however none of them have the same narrative to win.
Bradey Corbet; The Brutalist
Sean Baker; Anora
Jacques Audiard; Emilia Perez
Coraline Farget; The Substance
Edward Berger; Conclave
Best Actor
Adrien Brody for The Brutalist is giving a performance that people are claiming is one of the best of the decade. Not only that, people believe it might be his career defining performance. A bold claim since he has won The Oscar before for his work on The Pianist over twenty years ago. However, the buzz surrounding Timothee Chalamet’s incredible performance playing Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown could make this best actor award a race. Both performances could easily win the award in any other year, so it will be fascinating to see how it pans out on Oscar night, but I’m giving the edge to Brody for being a more seasoned actor giving what is an incredibly challenging role. I wouldn’t be upset if Chalamet won however, I believe it’s a career best performance for him as well. I believe Ralph Fiennes for Conclave and Colman Domingo for Sing Sing are solid third and fourth choices. Both men have showed up at almost every precursor, but I fail to see the campaigns for a win for either one of them. The fifth slot is complicated. Daniel Craig has been getting acclaim for his performance in Luca Guadagnino’s latest Queer but I felt it was weird that he missed the BAFTA nominations for actor. Since the BAFTA’s are the British award body, them not nominating one of their own seems fishy to me. To me, Queer might end up being too weird, explicit and didactic for the Academy’s taste. Which is why I’m going to take a turn here and say that Sebastian Stan will get in for his portrayal of Donald Trump in The Apprentice. The Apprentice bombed in the states, probably because it is a scathing look of the origin of the current president Donald Trump, but, it has done fairly well in foreign voting bodies. It’s even created solid revenue overseas, making seventeen million dollars internationally. The Academy might want to stay away from having any sort of political ties with these nominations and leave Stan out, but after Stan’s win for A Different Man at The Golden Globes, I can see them actually siding with Stan. It would also be a bold choice to show condemnation for Trump and his presidency and since The Academy loves to show their progressivism in the award show (albeit a lot of it is just empty gesturing), I think they might actually give Stan the nomination. I will say however, it is a 50/50 shot, I just have a gut feeling this could become a reality. I would be happy if it happened, I believe Stan’s performance is one of the years best. It’s an accurate and nuanced approach to Trump and his greed, portraying him as the villain he actually is.
Adrien Brody: The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet: A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes: Conclave
Coleman Domingo: Sing Sing
Sebastian Stan: The Apprentice
Best Actress
I believe Demi Moore has the best case to win actress for her role in The Substance, which is easily one of the years best performances. That film is about an aging star taking a substance to make her look younger and prettier so she can have the career she once had, which is a reflection of the place Moore felt like she was in with her career before being in The Substance. The narrative that she believed her Oscar career was over before taking the role is akin to Ke Huy Quan’s win for supporting actor for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Mikey Madison could also win the award for her excellent performance in Anora. Madison is giving a performance that was being compared to Gena Rowland’s iconic performance is John Cassavetes’ excellent Woman Under the Influence. What I will say is that Mikey Madison’s career is far from over and I can see her winning this award for another movie down the road. It’s hard for younger performers to win these awards, which isn’t entirely fair but that’s just the truth. I also see Karla Sofia Gascon getting in for her role in Emilia Perez, she hasn’t missed any precursors, as well as Cythia Erivo for Wicked who has been showing up a lot of places. That leaves the number five spot, which is difficult to choose. For me, I’m going for a swing and saying the Brazilian actress Fernada Torres will get the nomination for her role in the film I’m Still Here. She won actress in a drama at The Golden Globes. It hasn’t been since the 80’s since a woman has missed the five line up after winning that award, but The Golden Globes award body has changed dramatically just within the last few years and she has failed to pick up much steam from other award bodies outside of The Globes. However, I do believe she has a solid chance here because of her last minute surge of support with the industry shouting her out on social media, pushing her a little above the competition in my opinion.
Demi Moore: The Substance
Mikey Madison: Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon: Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo: Wicked
Fernanda Torres: I’m Still Here
Supporting Actor
Like I mentioned in my best picture analysis, Kieran Culkin has been sweeping supporting actor wins for his role in A Real Pain and he will continue to for The Oscars. Which makes me really happy as a big fan of the film, he would be my personal winner for this year as well. I think everyone else in the category makes sense as well. Some people believe that Clarence Maclin could make it in for Sing Sing but I disagree at this point. He’s missed too many precursors that Jeremy Strong has made for his role in The Apprentice and I think he can comfortably make it in that fifth slot. Shoutout to Yura Borisov for Anora, who has made it in everywhere. I love his performance in the film and I’m glad it’s getting recognized. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown also make sense, they’ve made it in enough places. This category is pretty easy this year.
1. Kieran Culkin: A Real Pain
2. Guy Pearce: The Brutalist
3. Yura Borisov: Anora
4. Edward Norton: A Complete Unknown
5. Jeremy Strong: The Apprentice
Supporting Actress
Here’s another category that’s pretty much done at this point for the win. Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez has been sweeping wins, even above Ariana Grande in Wicked which is a surprise for me. I much prefer Grande in Wicked but I have to admit that Saldana is good in Emilia Perez, as much as I have issues with that movie. She dedicates her all into it. Those two will make the supporting actress line up. The other three slots are hard to determine however. I am going with Felicity Jones in The Brutalist, which is my easy choice to win this category and I find it odd she hasn’t gotten even more award support for this amazing role. Isabella Rossellini I believe will get in for Conclave which I find to be a weird nomination. I’m a huge fan of her and I believe she should have been nominated in 1986 for her role in David Lynch’s opus Blue Velvet, but her role in Conclave is so brief. She has a really great moment but I don’t know if that’s enough for the nomination, but she has enough support from the industry that I have her getting in. Every year, The Oscars throw two supporting nominations for one movie they really like, especially if one of the said supporting performances is a frontrunner. This is why I have Selena Gomez getting in for Emilia Perez. It makes sense to me and it’s something I’ve been calling since I saw the film at the Toronto International Film Festival last September. I’ve heard some people making a case for Jamie Lee Curtis for her role in The Last Showgirl or maybe even Margaret Qualley’s great performance in The Substance, but ultimately I just don’t think their cases for a nomination as compelling as the five I’ve chosen. Maybe Monica Barbaro could surprise for her excellent performance in A Complete Unknown if that movie over performs nomination morning, but I doubt that will happen.
1. Zoe Saldana: Emilia Perez
2. Ariana Grande: Wicked
3. Felicity Jones: The Brutalist
4. Isabella Rossellini: Conclave
5. Selena Gomez: Emilia Perez
Best Adapted Screenplay
I believe Conclave is winning adapted screenplay easily this year. It’s a really strong screenplay that is incredibly timely and I think if it wins this award, it has a shot for best picture akin to Spotlight’s win for screenplay and picture in 2015. I think Emilia Perez is a lock for a nomination, but the film has so much controversy about it’s writing that I don’t see it translating to a win. A Complete Unknown is also an easy lock for a nomination, it’s been getting in pretty much everywhere it needs to. That leaves two slots I’m giving to two Oscar underdogs. I think Sing Sing can grab a spot here for it’s screenplay and right now I have the fifth spot for Nickel Boys, the only nomination I think it can get at this point. If Nickel Boys gets this nomination, it could secure itself a tenth slot for picture akin to what Woman Talking achieved in 2021 but we shall see. People might contest that Dune Part 2 or Wicked could make it in as well since they are solidly in for picture, but I doubt it with the precursors they have missed. That being said, Top Gun Maverick got into adapted screenplay in 2022 with missing a lot of precursors as well, so it’s not impossible we see one of those get into this line up with five. Especially since the first Dune film got into adapted screenplay in 2021, however the category was less competitive that year and the first Dune had a stronger awards run than the sequel has so far.
1. Conclave
2. Emilia Perez
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Sing Sing
5. Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
It’s Sean Baker’s time for Oscar recognition and it’s gonna happen for Anora. This movie has been doing well this award circuit and it’s screenplay has been doing very strong. The only reason it lost the Golden Globes is because it was up against Conclave, but since the two are in different categories, Anora will win this. The Brutalist has an outside shot to win as well since I do believe it will win best picture, but that film is more of a technical achievement while Anora works mostly because of it’s strong screenplay. The Substance and A Real Pain are easy for three and four slots for being strong original screenplay’s that have been making several precursors. The fifth slot I’m giving to September 5, which got a nomination for best drama at The Golden Globes to the shock of everyone. That small movie has made its way into some screenplay nominations and I don’t believe it can be totally ignored by The Academy at this point. There’s even a small chance it sneaks into best picture last minute. Challengers might make an appearance in this category as well since it will likely be nominated for score and editing as well, but I find it unlikely. It seems like September 5 is a more Academy friendly pick overall.
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. The Substance
4. A Real Pain
5. September 5
And those are my predictions for this years Oscars above the line categories! Let me know in the comments what you are predicting and we will see how right or wrong I am!
